CAT emissions projections for Australia are 10% to 11% lower in 2020 and 11% to 14% lower in 2030 than our previous projections in December 2019, mainly due to the impact of the pandemic on emissions. This projected reduction in emissions would allow Australia to meet its 2020 target, which it would not have been able to achieve otherwise in the current pre-pandemic political scenario. However, this is not a sustainable reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and despite the expected reductions due to the pandemic, Australia is still not on track to meet its 2030 target. Gas recovery ignores warnings from businesses, industry and environmental organisations to support a green recovery, particularly employment opportunities through accelerated investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency. The government will change the responsibilities of the crown`s funding and research agencies to be technologically neutral if they are designed to support clean energy. The government also intends to subscribe to investments in fossil fuel capacity and is funding a study on new coal-fired electricity generation. Government forecasts for 2019 show that Australia is on track to increase coal production from 634 Mt in 2020 to 659 Mt in 2030 and natural gas production from 82 Mt in 2020 to 87 Mt in 2030. Australia`s current commitments under the Paris Agreement (reduction of 26-28% by 2030 from 2005 levels) contradict the previous limit of 2°C and even more so with the long-term temperature target of the Paris Agreement. All expert assessments show that Australia`s current policy will not reach the 26-28% reductions in the Paris Agreement by 2030. Adopting the minimum path proposed in the Finkel review for the electricity sector would make achieving this objective even less likely, as it would require much faster action in other sectors, which would be more costly and could in itself act more slowly or become efficient. After the Paris Agreement entered into force in 2016, INDCs were the first NDCs when a country ratified the agreement, unless it decided to submit a new NDC at the same time.
NDCs are the first greenhouse gas targets of the UNFCCC that apply to both developed and developing countries. [2] Sustainable Development Goal 13 on climate change mitigation contains an indicator for its second target for NDCs: indicator 13.2.1 is the “number of countries with nationally determined contributions, long-term strategies, national adaptation plans, strategies as reported in the Adaptation Communication and the National Communication”. [6] As of March 31, 2020, 186 Parties (185 countries plus the European Union) had submitted their first NDCs to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. “Future generations. will thank us not for what we have promised, but for what we keep. Without a national climate law, the problems of the past will remain. National policies and efforts will remain uncoordinated, investors will face persistent uncertainty, and economic opportunities will continue to be lost. The information gathered from the individual reports and reviews of the parties, as well as the overview obtained through the “global stocktaking”, will in turn feed into and shape the formulation of subsequent commitments by States. Overall, the logic is that this process will provide many avenues for national and transnational political processes to unfold, facilitating more ambitious commitments and putting pressure on States to achieve their nationally set goals.
[4] An analysis by Climate Analytics shows that to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, unwinded coal-fired power plants would need to be phased out globally by mid-century and in the OECD region globally by 2030. A recent IEA assessment (2017) shows that relentless coal-fired electricity generation needs to be phased out globally by 2040, with the emissions intensity of electricity generation reaching zero by 2050. A parliamentary inquiry into climate legislation proposed by independent MP Zali Steggall, which includes a net-zero target for 2050 and would require the government to set a rolling emissions budget to achieve it, is due to hold hearings on Friday and Monday. In 2015, 196 countries adopted the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international agreement on climate change, with the aim of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, each country has agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible and to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. Government support for the fossil fuel industry is detrimental to a low-carbon future. The prime minister sent mixed messages, initially stating that the government will build a gas-fired power plant if the electricity market does not commit to 1 GW of broadcast capacity by April 2021 to replace the Liddell coal-fired power plant, which is expected to close in 2023. There was no evidence to support 1 GW of gas when reviewing new announcements for major battery projects and renewable energy zones. A few days later, the prime minister retracted that statement, but the mixed messages and the threat of competing with a state-subsidized company are creating uncertainty for investors.
The government has appointed a national advisory board of the COVID-19 commission to provide a business perspective on the economic recovery. The council included stakeholders from fossil fuels and the mining industry. The Commission recommended the construction of an Australian transactive gas pipeline and the increase of domestic gas supply and subsidies for gas-fired electricity generation. In 2021, a study using a fully statistical probabilistic model concluded that emission reduction rates need to increase by 80% above NDCs in order to likely reach the Earth`s Paris Agreement upper target range of 2°C, that the likelihood of large emitters reaching their CDNs without such an increase is very low. with the estimate that, according to current trends, the probability of remaining below 2°C of warming is 5% – and whether the NDCs have been met and 26% pursued by all signatory systems after 2030. [19] [18] Experts recommended fundamental structural changes in the socio-economy of world civilization for systematic “decarbonization”[20] and related mechanisms – such as work, responsibility and resource allocation – as well as pursuing a path for a maximum of 1.5 degrees of warming instead of 2 degrees. The National Electricity Market Review, also known as the Finkel Review, provided an opportunity to propose a science-based approach to the short- and long-term development of Australia`s electricity sector, which is in line with the low-carbon transformation needed to achieve the goals and commitments of the Paris Agreement. If the government were to accept the minimum path for the electricity sector proposed by the Finkel review, Australia would most likely not be able to meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement, which calls on countries to take action to keep global warming well below 2°C and limit it to 1.5°C. .